Which center should Rangers trade? Behind the hard choice looming

Regarding the Rangers:

1. The critical decision confronting general manager Jeff Gorton is not choosing Kevin Hayes or Vlad Namestnikov to sign to a contract extension, it is whether to trade Hayes or Mika Zibanejad.

We reported Sunday that Hayes is seeking a five-year deal for upward of $5.5 million per year. At first blush, that seems a lot for a 26-year-old who has never hit the 50-point mark in his four NHL seasons.

But when compared to the five-year deal at $5.3 million per season for which a 24-year-old Zibanejad signed last summer, it is well within the ballpark — especially since No. 93 was two years away from unrestricted free agency whereas Hayes is eligible to hit the market next summer.

They are completely different players. Zibanejad is a speed-and-skill center whose shot represents his biggest weapon. He played on the first line last year after working on the second line behind Derek Stepan the previous season during his first year on Broadway.

Hayes, who generally slows the game down while protecting the puck and buying time in an ersatz power game, has been the third-line pivot pretty much throughout his career and was used extensively in a matchup role last season.

see also

Rangers now pivot to players who will determine this season

DALLAS — The dealing lies ahead for the Rangers, who…

Yet the two players’ overall production in their two years as teammates is essentially the same, with Zibanejad recording .32 goals-per-game and .66 points-per-game as opposed to Hayes’ .28 GPG and .61 PPG. Those numbers are skewed, though, by Zibanejad’s superior power-play numbers, achieved while getting twice as much man-advantage time (2:43 to 1:17) per game.

At five-on-five over the past two years, Hayes has been the superior player, recording 59 points (30-29) in 152 games to Zibanejad’s 43 points (19-24) in 128 matches. Hayes has posted 17 primary assists over the past two years to Zibanejad’s nine. Keep in mind that Hayes’ offensive zone start ratio was 40.7 and 42.7, respectively in 2016-17 and 2017-18, while Zibanejad’s was 53.8 and 53.0.

There has been growth in both players. Hayes’ response to his dismal 2015-16 sophomore season has been especially impressive. There is room for growth in both players, too. The prospect of fellow Bostonian David Quinn squeezing more of a straight-line, hard-edged game out of Hayes is especially intriguing. (The same holds true for winger Jimmy Vesey, also an impending Group II free agent).

The Rangers intend to create room so that Filip Chytil has a shot at winning a top-six role. Spots are earned rather than bequeathed, but if Zibanejad, Chytil and Hayes line up 1-2-3 down the middle, then Lias Andersson’s ceiling on a rebuilding team is as a fourth-liner. That doesn’t seem to make a whole of lot of sense. Neither, really, does paying a third-line center more than $5 million per year.

Zibanejad’s health and concussion history is a consideration, as well. It took a couple of months for No. 93 to regain his form after suffering a broken fibula his first year as a Ranger and it took perhaps that long for him to regain his mojo after suffering a concussion — not his first, second or even third, as he volunteered — last season.

Zibanejad and Hayes are different players possessing different kinds of value. But their value to the Rangers cannot be calculated in a vacuum because the packages teams are offering in return for each becomes a significant part of the equation.

It is not simply A versus B. It is A plus X versus B plus Y, with X and Y unknown quantities. Well, unknown to us, but presumably known to Gorton, at least within the not too distant future. The choice between keeping Zibanejad or Hayes will be a difficult one.

see also

Islanders push to re-sign John Tavares just got five times harder

DALLAS — This always seemed inevitable, but now that it’s…

2. If the Maple Leafs succeed in wooing John Tavares, they’re probably going to have to find a taker for Nathan Horton’s perpetually injured-reserve cap hit of $5.3 million that runs through the end of 2019-20.

I wonder if the Rangers, who have oodles of space this year and should not have any sort of issue next year, might be able to work out a deal for a young asset and/or a second-rounder for Horton, who has gone from Boston to Columbus to Toronto in a series of deals in the aftermath of the concussion he sustained on the Aaron Rome headshot in Game 3 of the 2011 Cup finals. Horton has not played since 2013-14.

The Devils were able to get a second-rounder from the Panthers to take on Marc Savard’s injured reserve-bound cap hit of just over $4.21 million for one season.

3. If the intention is for the Rangers to play a harder, grittier, more straight-line game under Quinn (and it is), they are going to have to add players who fit that vision, because there sure aren’t enough on the roster. Free-agent candidates include Leo Komarov, Antoine Roussel and Tommy Wingels, none exactly of marquee caliber.

4. I believe the Blueshirts have interest in a reunion with Michael Grabner, but the prospects of Rick Nash returning are negligible.