Only perfect deal should pry Chris Kreider from Rangers
If the Blueshirts believe that the construction process will last longer than they’d anticipated upon embarking on the program a year ago, the one sure way to guarantee that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy would be by trading Chris Kreider by the Feb. 25 deadline rather than extending his contract this July.
Otherwise, if this organization is serious about building, competing and accelerating the rebuild through judicious trades, pinpoint drafting, effective development and targeted free-agent signings, the notion of dealing Kreider just as he is coming into his own at age 27 seems slightly insane.
With one season at a below-market $4.625 million cap hit remaining on his four-year contract and thus a hypothetical two-playoffs acquisition, the potential 2020 free agent will be in demand at the deadline. But unless a contending team is willing to sacrifice a younger player of at least equal value in exchange for No. 20, what is the point, unless it is to move the goalposts?
If you’re telling me Colorado will yield Cale Makar, the 20-year-old righty defenseman at UMass who is a Hobey Baker nominee, then, well, position for position, it probably makes some sense. But there are no indications the Avalanche, on the Western fault line and in danger of falling through the cracks, would deal the fourth-overall selection of the 2017 draft.
The team’s own first-rounder might be in play, and if Colorado crashes that could become a pick in the pre-lottery 6-14 range (the Avalanche are three whole points ahead of the Rangers, by the way). The Blueshirts could use that. But tell me: Are you convinced a player selected with a hypothetical 11th-overall pick will be more valuable in another three to five years than Kreider? He certainly won’t be next season or the one after that.
After accumulating picks and prospects (none at the A level) last February, general manager Jeff Gorton’s charge is to acquire quality rather than quantity this time around. Would Carolina offer center Martin Necas? Not very likely. And would the Rangers be that much better by adding to a position at which they are probably deepest, while pruning a less fortified one?
You could see Boston getting in on this, Tampa Bay always seems to be an option, and Toronto, essentially inert the last month and somehow much, much closer to missing the playoffs than to first place, would surely be intrigued.
But would the Leafs surrender William Nylander? If so, then the outcome of the Dec. 1 season-saving contract agreement with the Swede would turn into a massive fail for general manager Kyle Dubas. So, in a word, no. What else, a B-level guy and a late first? Not close to enough. Would the Bruins be willing to include, say, Jake DeBrusk or Anders Bjork or Ryan Donato — players quarantined in the Rick Nash talks last year — as part of a deal to bring No. 20 home? Is that enough? Charlie McAvoy? That would be an interesting place to start.
Would Anaheim, apparently still determined to go after it, offer Troy Terry? Would Nashville part with Eeli Tolvanen a year after walling him off in the Nash talks? Could Vegas, always active, make center Cody Glass available in order to get two cracks at the Cup with Kreider? Maybe, but again, what does adding a center do, other than make Kevin Hayes absolutely obsolete? You notice here we are essentially identifying the top NHL-affiliated prospects extant and it might not make sense unless a big-time defenseman is on the other end of it.
The waiting for Kreider to become a next-gen Brendan Shanahan is over. But Kreider’s development certainly is not. Kreider’s value to the Rangers is not capped. Yes, it will likely take six years at around $36 million to lock him up beyond the current contract, but that represents the cost of doing business. It will be a significant sum, but for whom are they saving space for 2020-21 and beyond?
Kreider leads the team in goals with 22. He is the team’s leading goal-scorer since the start of his first full season in 2013-14, 125-124 over Nash, with Mats Zuccarello third with 99 and Hayes fourth with 83. And he is the consummate teammate, one of the most important voices in the room as the Rangers attempt to maintain the culture that delivered them to the NHL’s upper-echelon through most of this decade.
Gorton faces tricky decisions as the deadline draws near. This shouldn’t be one of them. In order to justify trading Kreider, the GM must not only acquire a player who will contribute as much on the ice both over the short term and the long haul, but who means as much to the Rangers and as a Ranger as Chris Kreider.